Messages
8/29/2024
8 : 4
Why short-term finance matters (a lot more) to exporting firms
Aydan Dogan and Ida Hjortsoe Exporting allows firms to access a larger market, but it also implies costs and risks. Some of these costs and risks are due to the time between production and sales
8/28/2024
8 : 4
A summary measure for UK households’ resilience
Vania Esady and Stephen Burgess A summary measure for UK households' resilience High levels of household debt have been shown to amplify recessions. For example, in the global financial crisis (GFC
8/22/2024
8 : 4
High hurdles: evidence on corporate investment hurdle rates in the UK
Krishan Shah, Phil Bunn and Marko Melolinna An important way in which monetary policy impacts the economy is through its effects on the capital expenditure of firms. When policy rates are raised (and
8/21/2024
8 : 4
Growth-at-Risk for macroprudential policy stance assessment: a survey
Tihana Škrinjarić How effective is macroprudential policy and how should policymakers measure its stance? My recent paper surveys the literature on the topic of Growth-at-Risk (GaR), which has been
8/20/2024
3 : 24
SONIA: steady as she goes
Joanna McLafferty, Kirstine McMillan and Joseph Smart On 7 May 2024 the SONIA rate, the UK's risk-free reference rate, printed at exactly 5.2000% and has remained there to the end of July 2024 (the
8/20/2024
3 : 4
State-dependent effects of UK monetary policy
Vania Esady Monetary policy actions transmit to inflation and real activity with 'long and variable' lags. However, it is not obvious how the effectiveness of monetary policy varies across
8/9/2024
14 : 14
Central bank balance sheet policies and the market for reserves
Michael Kumhof and Mauricio Salgado-Moreno While 'unconventional' balance-sheet policies like quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT) appear to have been successful, it is
8/7/2024
8 : 4
Caring for the ‘future’
David Glanville and Arif Merali Short term interest rate (STIR) futures are the bedrock of interest rate markets, used to price expectations of central bank policy rates and other UK rate derivative
8/2/2024
10 : 14
Monetary policy in a gas-TANK
Jenny Chan, Sebastian Diz and Derrick Kanngiesser In recent years, increases in global energy prices have posed significant challenges for net energy importers such as the UK or the euro area. In
7/26/2024
13 : 14
What caused the LDI crisis?
Gabor Pinter, Emil Siriwardane and Danny Walker In September 2022 the interest rate on UK gilts rose by over 100 basis points in four days. These unprecedent market movements are generally attributed
7/17/2024
8 : 4
Futures under stress: how did gilt futures behave in the LDI crisis?
Joel Mundy and Matt Roberts-Sklar When markets are volatile, liquidity tends to worsen. This makes it harder to intermediate buyers and sellers. We saw this during the 2022 liability-driven investment
7/12/2024
13 : 4
Forecast accuracy and efficiency at the Bank of England – and how forecast errors can be leveraged to do better
Derrick Kanngiesser and Tim Willems This post describes a systematic way for central banks to employ past forecasts (and associated errors) with the aim of learning more about the structure and
7/11/2024
8 : 4
Using sectoral data to estimate the trend in aggregate wage growth
Tomas Key Nominal wage growth has increased markedly in the UK in recent years, reaching levels that haven't been seen for more than 20 years. Although growth has moderated a little in recent
7/11/2024
6 : 24
‘No one length fits all’ – haircuts in the repo market
Miruna-Daniela Ivan, Joshua Lillis, Eduardo Maqui and Carlos Cañon Salazar Funding markets are crucial for healthy and active financial institutions, and consequently for everyone in the economy. The
5/23/2024
8 : 4
Selling England (no longer) by the pound: currency-mismatches and the dollarisation of UK exports
Marco Garofalo, Giovanni Rosso and Roger Vicquery Most international trade is denominated in dominant currencies such as the US dollar. What explains the adoption of dominant currency pricing and what
5/22/2024
8 : 4
The link between mortgage debt servicing burdens and arrears: is there a critical threshold?
Nuri Khayal and Jonathan Loke Many households in the UK have seen their mortgage payments go up since mortgage rates started to increase in 2022. In the current environment of higher rates, the
5/17/2024
13 : 14
Leveraging language models for prudential supervision
Adam Muhtar and Dragos Gorduza Imagine a world where machines can assist humans in navigating across complex financial rules. What was once far-fetched is rapidly becoming reality, particularly with
5/17/2024
12 : 54
Leverage finds a way: a comparison of US Treasury basis trading and the LDI event
Adam Brinley Codd, Daniel Krause, Pierre Ortlieb and Alex Briers We both drive cars, but the US drives on the right while the UK drives on the left. We both walk, but we do so on sidewalks in the US
4/24/2024
8 : 4
Quantifying the macroeconomic impact of geopolitical risk
Julian Reynolds Policymakers and market participants consistently cite geopolitical developments as a key risk to the global economy and financial system. But how can one quantify the potential
4/18/2024
8 : 4
Three facts about the rising number of UK business exits
Jelle Barkema, Maren Froemel and Sophie Piton Record-high firm exits make headlines, but who are the firms going out of business? This post documents three facts about the rising number of corporations